- №0718 September 2026· 9 min
The Real Basket Index
The cost-of-living squeeze has stopped being a shock and become the baseline. This week we introduce the Real Basket Index across all six markets, and the two macro shocks, a firmer dollar and higher oil, now point the same way rather than cancelling out. Where momentum is building, where risk is rising, and three moves to make now.
Read edition → - №0612 September 2026· 8 min
The Average Lies
Headline inflation is cooling across Africa. What your customers actually pay is not — and pricing to the national average will cost you. Nigeria's plate is on fire while the CPI cools; Kenya's daily essentials run at double the headline; Ghana's squeeze moved off the plate onto services. Same word, three economies. Price to the plate, not the print.
Read edition → - №054 September 2026· 8 min
The Window Slams Shut
One week after it opened, both external tailwinds reversed. A blowout US jobs report revived Fed-hike bets and firmed the dollar; US strikes near Hormuz sent Brent back to ~$96. The exact risk we flagged fired — on both hinges at once. If you moved in the window, hold. If you waited, stop chasing it.
Read edition → - №0428 August 2026· 8 min
The Window Reopens
As oil eases and the Fed turns, Africa's external financing window is swinging open — but only for those positioned to climb through. Reformers with stable currencies can tap cheaper hard-currency capital now; domestically, money stays dear where food inflation locks the central bank. Raise while the window is open.
Read edition → - №0321 August 2026· 8 min
Africa Is Building Around Its Bottlenecks
Capital is becoming selective — moving toward the assets that solve physical constraints: energy, industrial inputs, logistics, regional trade. Nigeria put $1.3bn behind steel; Kenya is anchoring a $16–17bn regional refinery; South Africa posted record auto output. Stop treating Africa as one investment cycle.
Read edition → - №0214 August 2026· 8 min
Taxed by Size — Washington just re-sorted African trade
The US Section 301 forced-labour tariffs put a 12.5% duty on Africa's largest exporters — South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Egypt, Morocco, Algeria — while Kenya and Ghana escaped the list entirely. For the first time, being a big exporter to the US is a liability, not an advantage. With AGOA expiring 31 December, the window to re-route is closing.
Read edition → - №018 August 2026· 7 min
Two Africas — and most operators are trading the wrong one
The map of African trade just split in two. Currency, credit and cost now differ sharply depending on which Africa you operate in — and most businesses are still sourcing, pricing and financing as though the continent were one market. It isn't. This week: how to re-map before the gap widens.
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